Learn EdgeSimulate

What it is: Monte Carlo runs thousands of simulated trade paths using your historical trade results.

What it is used for: It helps estimate a range of possible outcomes instead of relying on one historical backtest path.

What it is: Shuffle keeps the same trades but changes the order.

What it is used for: It shows how much your results can change simply from a different order of wins and losses.

What it is: Bootstrap randomly samples trades from your results. Trades can repeat or be skipped in each simulation path.

What it is used for: It creates new possible trade sequences and often gives a wider view of downside risk than shuffle alone.

What it is: The largest peak-to-trough drawdown in your original trade list.

What it is used for: It gives a real historical benchmark to compare against Monte Carlo drawdowns.

What it is: The middle result across all simulations.

What it is used for: It represents a typical simulated outcome, rather than the best or worst case.

What it is: The drawdown level that 95% of simulations stayed below.

What it is used for: It helps estimate realistic downside risk for normal planning.

What it is: The drawdown level that 99% of simulations stayed below.

What it is used for: It is useful for conservative position sizing and capital planning.

What it is: The largest drawdown observed across all simulated paths.

What it is used for: It shows the most extreme downside case generated during the simulation run.

What it is: Saved simulations store your Monte Carlo results in your account.

What it is used for: It lets you review past runs, track strategy changes, and compare different trade lists.

What it is: A dashboard tool for comparing saved simulations side by side.

What it is used for: It helps determine which system has better risk-adjusted behavior, not just higher returns.

What it is: The number of trades it takes to recover from a drawdown and reach a new equity high.

What it is used for: It helps traders understand duration risk and the psychological difficulty of waiting for recovery.

What it is: The probability of reaching a chosen loss threshold, such as -20R.

What it is used for: It helps determine whether your risk per trade is sustainable.

What it is: Visual charts showing the distribution of final outcomes and drawdowns across simulations.

What it is used for: It helps traders see whether results are tightly clustered or spread across a wide range of outcomes.

What it is: A downloadable spreadsheet-style summary of the saved simulation.

What it is used for: It helps with external analysis, record keeping, and strategy documentation.

What it is: A downloadable risk report summarizing the simulation results.

What it is used for: It is useful for reviewing a strategy, saving reports, or sharing results with others.

What it is: A CSV upload format that includes both trade date and R result.

What it is used for: Dates allow EdgeSimulate to calculate time-based metrics like trades per week, calendar drawdown duration, and time between equity highs.

What it is: Measures trades per week, trades per month, average days between trades, and longest gap between trades.

What it is used for: It helps convert trade-based risk into real calendar-time expectations.

What it is: Measures how drawdowns, recovery periods, and equity-high gaps behaved historically.

What it is used for: It helps identify whether the strategy experiences short isolated drawdowns or longer difficult regimes.

What it is: A breakdown of your dated trade list by calendar year, including total R, max drawdown, expectancy, efficiency, and trade count.

What it is used for: It helps traders see whether a strategy performed consistently across different years or depended heavily on one strong market period.

Why it matters: A strategy can look strong overall while still having weak years, large yearly drawdowns, or unstable expectancy. Year-by-year analysis helps reveal that before risking more capital.

What it is: The length of drawdowns measured in both trades and calendar days.

What it is used for: It helps estimate how long a trader may need to stay disciplined before the system reaches a new high.

What it is: The deepest historical drawdown, including its start date, end date, and duration.

What it is used for: It shows the worst historical risk period and helps compare historical drawdown against Monte Carlo drawdown.

What it is: The number of trades or days between new equity highs.

What it is used for: It helps measure how often a system goes through stagnant periods without making new highs.

What it is: Measures the average, median, worst, and 75th percentile losing streak length.

What it is used for: It helps identify whether losses tend to appear in small groups or painful clusters.

What it is: Measures whether one trade result has a relationship with the next trade result.

What it is used for: Values near zero suggest weak simple trade-to-trade dependence. Higher positive values can suggest persistence, while negative values can suggest alternating behavior.

What it is: Measures average R over rolling 20, 50, and 100 trade windows.

What it is used for: It helps show whether the strategy remains stable or experiences changing performance regimes.

What it is: Recommended block sizes for Realistic, Conservative, and Stress Test block Monte Carlo.

What it is used for: It helps choose block sizes that reflect drawdown duration, time between highs, losing streaks, and rolling expectancy behavior.

What it is: A Monte Carlo method that samples consecutive chunks of trades instead of individual trades.

What it is used for: It helps preserve historical streaks and regimes that regular shuffle or bootstrap simulations may break apart.

What it is: Block Monte Carlo samples historical trade chunks. Each block keeps a section of your original trade sequence together.

Why it happens: Larger blocks do not automatically create larger drawdowns. A larger block can preserve both the losing period and the recovery trades that followed it. A smaller block can sometimes separate the recovery trades and allow losing periods to cluster more aggressively in the simulation.

What it means: If a smaller block produces a larger drawdown than a larger block, it does not automatically mean the calculation is wrong. It means that, for that trade history, the smaller block size created a more severe simulated distribution.

How to use it: Compare all tested block sizes and pay attention to the worst drawdown produced across them. Do not assume the largest block size will always create the largest drawdown.

What it is: Three block-size scenarios designed to test different levels of regime persistence.

What it is used for: Realistic is for typical planning, Conservative is for longer difficult periods, and Stress Test is for harsher regime-risk planning.